Welcome to the Online Version of From the Politics Desk
Welcome to the online edition of From the Politics Desk, a newsletter that brings you the latest reporting and analysis from the NBC News Politics team. From the White House to Capitol Hill and the campaign trail, we’ve got you covered. Today’s edition features Steve Kornacki, who previews tonight’s special House election in Tennessee. Additionally, Sahil Kapur reports on the growing pessimism in Congress regarding a health insurance deal before premiums spike. Be sure to sign up for this newsletter to receive updates in your inbox every weekday.
What to Watch For in Tennessee Tonight
Analysis by Steve Kornacki
The signs are ominous this fall for President Donald Trump and the Republican Party: a slipping presidential job approval rating, a widening gap against Democrats in the generic congressional ballot, and significant gubernatorial election losses in Virginia and New Jersey. Tonight’s special election in Tennessee’s 7th District could be another setback.
Republican Matt Van Epps is favored to win the seat, but it may be closer than his party is used to. According to the one independent poll in the race, an upset victory for Democrat Aftyn Behn isn’t completely out of the question.
This district, which includes parts of Nashville, all of Clarksville, and stretches of exurban and rural middle Tennessee, is usually a GOP stronghold. Trump won it by 22 points in 2024 and 15 points in 2020. However, Democrats have been outpacing expectations in special elections this year, primarily due to an energized base and swing voters who turned their backs on Trump.
Potential Upset in Tennessee?
In the previous four special House elections in 2025, Democrats improved their standing by 16 to 22 points compared to last year’s presidential results. A similar pattern in Tennessee’s 7th District could push the margin into single digits, making Republicans sweat.
This would not only represent yet another special election over-performance for Democrats but also reflect the trends leading up to the 2018 midterm elections. Back then, Trump’s approval rating was also on the decline, and Democrats found momentum in traditionally Republican areas, notably clinching a special election in Pennsylvania that Trump had won by 23 points in 2016. This marked the beginning of the blue wave in November 2018, when Democrats flipped 40 House seats.
What If Republicans Win Big?
If Van Epps secures a comfortable victory—say, a solid double-digit margin—there could be reasons for Republican optimism. This would signal that they successfully mobilized their base and highlighted the far-left positions and inflammatory rhetoric of Behn. Despite Republican challenges this fall, Democrats remain unpopular as a party.
Republicans are already strategizing their 2026 campaign, aiming to tie Democratic candidates to the party’s more extreme voices. A decisive win tonight could bolster their hope that this approach might help them weather a challenging political landscape next year.
Steve will be going live at 7:45 p.m. ET to analyze the Tennessee special election results as they come in. You can catch the live coverage on our website, mobile app, and YouTube channel. The Kornacki Cam will stay active until NBC News makes a projection in the race.
Fading Hopes for a Healthcare Deal
By Sahil Kapur
With less than a month before health insurance premiums are set to soar for millions of Americans, hopes for a legislative solution are dwindling among lawmakers on both sides. “I’m not hopeful that that’s going to happen,” remarked Sen. Gary Peters, D-Mich. “We’ll keep trying, but things are not falling into place as I had hoped.”
Peters was among a group of senators pushing for a healthcare deal when eight Democrats voted with Republicans to reopen the government last month, ending the extended shutdown aimed at preserving Affordable Care Act funding.
After the shutdown, Senate Majority Leader John Thune, R-S.D., assured Democrats of a vote on a healthcare bill of their choosing next week. However, this would require 60 votes, and progress remains elusive as Republicans struggle to unify around a proposal.
The Stakes of Affordable Care Act Funding
The current discussion revolves around approximately $35 billion in subsidies under the Affordable Care Act that were enacted during the Covid pandemic. These funds aimed to lower premiums by capping them at 8.5% of enrollees’ income. While Democrats advocate for a straightforward extension of these funds, Republicans have dismissed a clean extension and have yet to propose an alternative plan, with many GOP lawmakers advocating for the cessation of ACA funding altogether.
