Florida Joins the National Redistricting Arms Race
The Sunshine State is gearing up for a legislative showdown with a hearing slated for Thursday, marking the start of yet another contentious battle over redistricting. While Republicans are giddy with excitement, holding the reins of state government and controlling 20 out of 28 congressional districts, the road to solidifying their slim House majority may be riddled with obstacles, both legally and politically.
Legal Hurdles Ahead
Voters in Florida pulled a fast one back in 2010 by approving a constitutional amendment designed to thwart the evils of partisan gerrymandering. However, a recent ruling by the state Supreme Court has left the ban on racial gerrymandering somewhat shaky. Nevertheless, the prohibition against partisan gerrymandering remains as sturdy as an alligator that just ate a whole cow.
The Florida Constitution is crystal clear: “No apportionment plan or individual district shall be drawn with the intent to favor or disfavor a political party or an incumbent.” This means that the legislators will have to come up with some fancy footwork to justify altering a map they installed just three years ago, all while avoiding the partisan motivations that have other states diving headfirst into mid-decade redistricting.
Political Wrestling Match
Despite the Republican stronghold in Florida, party leaders are playing a game of tug-of-war over the redistricting strategy. The Florida House seems eager to jump into the fray, having planned two hearings this month, but Governor Ron DeSantis suddenly decided he wants a shiny new map drawn up by spring, right before the candidate filing deadline. This will give the state a chance to gauge a potential Supreme Court ruling regarding a Louisiana redistricting case that could tip the scales of the Voting Rights Act.
The Senate’s Republican leader, Ben Albritton, has fallen in line with DeSantis, stating, “The Governor has expressed a desire to address this issue next Spring. As such, there is no ongoing work regarding potential mid-decade redistricting taking place in the Senate at this time.” This doesn’t mean it’s going to be smooth sailing; Albritton is bracing for inevitable lawsuits, reminding his colleagues to steer clear of partisan influences and keep all records squeaky clean.
The Stakes Are High
No concrete map proposals have hit the table yet, but there’s speculation that a redraw could be worth an extra three to five Republican seats—three being the most likely jackpot. Any special legislative session would need to wrap up by early April, just before federal candidate qualifying kicks in on April 20. Legislators have their eyes set on specific targets, such as Democratic Representatives Darren Soto in Orlando and Jared Moskowitz and Debbie Wasserman Schultz in South Florida.
However, should Republicans get a bit too ambitious, they risk a “dummymander”—a move that inadvertently makes safe seats more competitive for the opposing party. It’s a dangerous game of politics where one misstep could lead to unexpected consequences.
Grassroots Pushback
While GOP lawmakers seem to have the upper hand, the Democrats are far from powerless. Over 30 pro-democracy and progressive groups are organizing a protest rally, planning to bus more than 300 protesters to the state Capitol in Tallahassee on Thursday to voice their opposition to the Republican agenda.
The Bigger Picture
Florida’s entry into the redistricting arena comes at a crucial phase for the GOP. The party had a promising start this summer by passing a new map in Texas, potentially netting five additional seats, but the tide may have shifted since then. California Democrats responded with their own district lines aimed at neutralizing any gains made by Republicans in Texas, casting a shadow over the overall strategy.
As the redistricting saga continues, a map that could yield two extra Republican seats in Indiana is making its way through the state Legislature, though its fate remains uncertain. Meanwhile, Virginia Democrats are also embarking on a lengthy process to draw new maps for the upcoming midterms.
With continued pressure from lawmakers in Maryland, Illinois, and Kansas, redistricting is proving to be a never-ending chess match. It seems whether you’re a Republican or a Democrat, or simply a political observer with popcorn in hand, there’s never a dull moment when it comes to the game of political maps.
